Dodgier than Dave – More a mug than Milliband – Look out, Theresa’s about and does she have a deal for you! Seriously, what did Britain do to deserve some of the leaders we get in the long decades between those fit to be?
Much has been made of Theresa May’s Brexit deal. But what is it? What are its characteristics and why does almost every reasonable person conclude that no sensible country could agree to it?
Beware the European Commission when all its senior officials are laughing and smiling. Chance are, they are laugh AT you.
However, despite this, I detect a little regret that Britain has been so easily defeated in some quarters. There was still a hope among many European’s that those plucky Brits would escape the EU and make a go of it despite the wishes of the elitists masters pulling the strings. I think this stemmed from a hope that if Britain managed to teach the EU that their reckless disregard for democracy has consequences. The belief being that maybe this would lead to some sort of reform at last.
It took all 27 member states just 38 minutes! to agree to the deal presented by Theresa May during the meeting!. Because, what isn’t to like? It enslaves Britain, it means Britain actually pays MORE than ever to fund the EU. It also leaves all permissions and authority with the EU. It is even arguable that the EU can tell us that we are not leaving and in future we will pay more again.
This is a 585 document which simply gives the EU everything it could possibly wish for.
That the EU approved a document of 585 pages, in just 38 minutes tells you everything you need to know. Usually, the intractable EU is demonstrably hopeless at doing trade deals.
Take the utter frustration and comments of the Canadian team during the years of negotiation with Canada for example.
Agreement on anything is usually slow to materialise between the 27 members of the EU. 38 Minutes!.
Theresa May seems to have managed the impossible. Politicians of all party colours recognise this deal for what it is. No deal at all. Total capitulation and a disaster for Britain.
Even those in member states have publicly stated that no sensible country would agree to anything like this. Theresa May, it seems, is not at all sensible, so no problem there. Rather than list the failings of this long document (which is literally, a litany of failure) here are the key problems with this agreement in summary:
- A customs union without end. The EU must approve any end to the customs union. This was at the heart of every document, discussion and fundamental to the basis upon which the referendum itself was legally conducted.
This is absolutely undemocratic and completely undermines the vote of every person eligible to vote in Britain, setting a very dangerous precedent. This is the same democratic illegitimacy which was behind many leave voters voting against remaining in what they see as an undemocratic EU. Government said that a leave vote meant leaving the customs union. The UK cannot negotiate key trade relationships under this agreement.
2. It forces the British people to pay for EU excess. Currently, Britain receives a very significant rebate on fees paid to the EU. Worth around 10 bn a year). We shall be paying our fee’s with no control, no vote and no sovereignty, yet receiving no rebate either.
Financially, this agreement would be fundamentally worse for Britain than remaining would have been and that was unsustainable to begin with. The EU essentially, won the lottery thanks to Theresa May. She sold out the British people in a ‘Black Friday’ sale that saw British democracy and labour sold for next to nothing.
3. It effectively annexes UK sovereign territory. Essentially, handing Northern Ireland and possibly Gibraltar to the EU. Against the wishes of the people of those countries. The DUP, have already stated that this is as utterly unacceptable as any sort of border and it is this issue which has been weaponised by the EU and completely bungled by the PM.
Theresa May has given some vague mention of technological solutions to avoid a formal border and indeed, such solutions exist. Anyone who runs a global supply chain or moves valuable product such as oil, valuable metals or other products are very familiar with such technologies. Indeed, they are far more reliable than random stop and check, human based processes at the border. But Theresa May FAILED to conduct the fundamental due diligence to allow how to demonstrate how this would work in practice and how tried and tested these solutions actually are. This was the real issue which saw Theresa May’s pretence of negotiation fall apart. Instead of working with her allies in Ireland as well as the Secretary General and Secretariat of the WTO to come up with a workable solution Theresa May spent two years pushing an agenda to remain at any cost. The reason we need to consider this question is that outside of the EU, we would need to comply with WTO rules, which insists upon border controls in order to manage tariffs etc. However, this is a highly unusual situation and it should have been possible to negotiate a waiver of that requirement in this case, as such provisions exist within WTO articles OR to go back with the detailed electronic solution. The only reason that an electronic solution has not been chaired is because Theresa May is hell bent on keeping Britain in the EU. While she holds to that course, we cannot get on with pragmatic infrastructure design and deployment to mitigate the risks. Outside of the EU, we can put together an infrastructure solution which solves the tariff control situation and creates a seamless border within Ireland without a thousand border guards and any slow down in the free flow of traffic.
However, in the longer term, it may prove more reassuring to Ireland if we were to negotiate a waiver of this requirement within Ireland. Something that should have been applied soon after the referendum.
Neither the EU, nor Britain want to see the return of a hard border in Ireland. So this should have been solvable. However, TM has spent two years failing to prepare in any meaningful way. Where is the proposal that demonstrates the technology.
4. It fundamentally ends British Sovereignty. It hands law making and legal control of the British people to the unelected third party that is the EU. Something that only usually happens after a country loses a war and has been invaded by a hostile foreign power. This has not been the case in Britain for over a thousand years. It does not take back control, it gives up more than ever before.
5. It endangers the British Economy. It absolutely prevents UK economic development. The EU gets to set UK trade tariffs. Essentially, blocking all trade deal negotiations between Britain and any third party. Certainly in the medium to long term. Instead of dealing with the cost of planning and infrastructure to minimise disruption and maximise opportunity. Theresa May has spent two years trying to find ways trying to perform the con trick which is now so evident. In fact, those companies that held off making difficult decision BECAUSE they thought the UK was going to get out from underneath the EU are now worried this deal will force them to rationalise UK operations in the same way as so many have had to in Euro zone. In fact, it is worse than that. The UK government has proven itself so economically incompetent, thanks to the Brexit deal proposed, that the UK has dramatically increased the political risk factor associated with Britain.
6. It blocks UK Strategic investment. It allows the European Union to veto any attempt by the British Government to provide state aid to business or businesses which we which to invest in as a nation.
7. It is not Brexit in any form at all. The entire process is in the hands of the EU and it is even possible that the decision to leave could simply be ignored as this agreement allows the EU to approve all key aspects. Particulalrly as regards the so called ‘Irish Backstop’. It is quite possible that the EU could therefore hold the UK into this agreement ad inifinitum.
8. It sets a very dangerous anti democratic precedent for ignoring a democratic vote. Does your vote matter to you? Leave or Remain, most people agree that it is vital to preserve and protect a people’s democratic right to chose who leads them. To fail to exit the Common Market or the other institutions of the EU listed in the referedum document provided by the government means that politicians will have managed to get away with ignoring the largest vote in UK history. That every applicable adult has a vote and no one’s vote is more important than anothers is a fundamental foundation of a democratic system. If we ignore this vote, we have allowed the establishment elite a precedent for ignoring the will of the British people whenever it suits them. We effectively, give up the commitment to democratic rights and values. This has far reaching consequences at least as important as the Brexit process itself. Indeed, for many people, voting to leave the EU was linked to the democratic illegitimacy of the EU itself for exactly the same reason, making this a key issue. The whole fake process under Theresa May has been all about creating the spin required to avoid delivering upon that government commitment and whelch out of giving the people what they asked for in the most cynical way. Leave or Remain, you have to hold the government to account or you ensure that a 1000 years of progress in terms of equal rights for all, are eroded and reversed. These rights, so hard won, won’t be coming back in a world where globalist elite’s are already commited to moving society towards a non democratic future.
I don’t think any business leader is delusional enough to believe that the EU will not begin making life harder and less competitive for businesses based in Britain. Or that they will fail to use the time to predate British businesses. This will be a raid upon Britain as companies come under increasing economic pressure to move operations out of Britain.
Remain by another name. Paying more, getting even less. Theresa May’s claims that companies with EU wide supply chains will be protected by this deal are fundamentally flawed. Many of us that do operate within a global supply chain are far more competent to manage the risks and issues involved than Theresa May or the civil service has proven to be. Arguing that a change in trading conditions warrants wholesale surrender of the medium and long term opportunity simply because Theresa May and her Civil Service toadies havent the vision to understand this is not solving anyone’s problem. In fact, businesses are good at managing risk. Politicians are a fundamental factor in risk planning and none more so than the horrible one, two punch, which is both Theresa May and the incredibly far reaching regulations and incredibly poorly constructed regultory landscape of the EU. The big threat to those managing a global supply chain is the utter lack of preperation, investment and planning coming out of number 10.
Businesses are used to planning for a wide variety of trading conditions around the world.
Actually, most businesses have spent the years since the Euro zone Crisis hedging against Euro instability themselves. The deep flaws within the system of monetary union which became so apparent were never addressed by the EU. They were simply kicked down the road. Businesses of any scale are very aware of that and have spent 10 years restructuring European Operations against financial and political risk which has been rising across the EU thanks to increasingly broad and far reaching legislation, often ill conceived and with the capacity for incredibly detrimental unintended consequences.
Theresa May is Britain’s biggest risk surrounding Brexit. The wrong person, leading Britain over a cliff because the civil service and the Prime Minister are not competent to lead Britain in a way which reduces risk and addresses opportunity.
Desperate to offer the French people something other than ever more crime and declining living conditions as a result of his plan to replace them, President Macron has already stated that he will use the agreement to ensure that British fishermen will not get back fishing rights in British waters.
There is also a plan to force Britain to pay for the first supra national, unaccountable armed force in the world. The EU’s fundamental purpose was to prevent armed conflict in Europe. Yet it is arming Europe under extremely dubious terms. A legally, and democratically illegitimate armed force using military force to enforce the objectives of a democratically illegitimate groups of decision makers. Many of which are entirely unknown to the public. How could that NOT go badly and horribly wrong?